Wants To Be President, He’s Running In The Wrong Primary Plus, unlike in 2018, when she was running for an open seat, she’s now up against an incumbent who has proven himself to be a deft politician while in office. Abrams’s lackluster polling can also be attributed to the tepid enthusiasm for her candidacy among Black men. Because Abrams is a Black woman seeking statewide office in the South, sexism and racism are likely to blame for some of her underperformance - but not all of it. In the governor’s race, our Deluxe forecast gives Kemp about a 9-in-10 chance of being reelected, as of this past Friday at 12 p.m. FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast of the election, meanwhile, has assessed the race as a toss-up. In fact, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average is almost 2 points in Warnock’s favor. Most nonpartisan surveys, especially those fielded following Walker’s abortion controversy, have given Warnock a single-digit edge. According to our database, no recent nonpartisan polls give Walker a lead. Raphael Warnock, another Democrat on the ballot, who is running for reelection against Republican Herschel Walker. That stands out because there’s a significant gap between Abrams’s polling against Kemp versus that of Sen. And while Abrams had stronger support among Democrats than Kemp did with Republicans, according to a September Monmouth University survey, the pollsters also concluded that Abrams’s path to victory this year was “much narrower.”Ībrams’s campaign is also attracting a lot less buzz this year compared with the frenetic excitement of her candidacy in 2018. (All data in this article is as of this date and time.) An October poll from Data for Progress, though, found that the Republican held a lead of 10 percentage points over Abrams - 3 points more than when the firm last polled the race, in September. Most recent surveys of the race consistently show Abrams, a former minority leader in Georgia’s state House, trailing Kemp by single digits, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average as of this past Friday at 12 p.m. But she enters this year’s race as even more of an underdog than she was in 2018. Kamala Harris of California to share the ticket, Abrams kept her eyes on the governor’s mansion. There was speculation about whether she’d be chosen as Joe Biden’s running mate during his 2020 bid for the presidency ( a prospect Abrams welcomed), and she was largely credited for pioneering a new playbook focused on turning out Black voters in Georgia, especially after Biden flipped the state in 2020. Brian Kemp by fewer than 60,000 votes - but after such an unexpectedly tight contest, she was heralded by the Democratic Party as a promising new leader. Yes, she had just lost Georgia’s gubernatorial race to Gov. NATHAN POSNER / ANADOLU AGENCY / GETTY IMAGESįour years ago, Stacey Abrams had the world at her feet.
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